Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 10 ¼ cents higher ($4.98 ½), Dec 8 ¾ cents higher ($5.00) & March 8 cents higher ($5.08)

Sept KC Wheat closed ¾ cent higher ($4.18 ½), Dec ¼ cent lower ($4.35) & March ¾ cent lower ($4.51 ¾)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed ½ cent lower ($5.20 ½), Dec ½ cent higher ($5.31) & March ¾ cent higher ($5.45 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 487.7 K T. old crop vs. 250-500 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

It’s all about the Chgo SRW market. Concerns over deliverable quality for the end-user miller are the fuel for the fire as weekly export sales of SRW were only 35.1 K T. of the total 487.7 K T. The KC market struggled at the plus side finishing fractionally mixed while the Mpls market ran fractionally mixed as well. The hard varieties which were the lion’s share of exports struggle because of the realization that the US has become a secondary market for World exports (and its been that way for a while).

Advertised basis levels for standard protein wheat continue to be quiet. The Ohio River is a bit easier for SRW. HRW interior basis locations are running unchanged. Not much appears to be happening with export. Needless to say Chgo spreads were noticeably strong on what appears to be a play for quality. KC spreads saw fractional improvement.

For as strong as Chgo wheat looks in the short term it remains in a well-defined down channel. Adding to that configuration the market still has a fair amount of congestive type resistance just above today’s highs. The KC market acts like a slug. It would not surprise me to see this week’s low KC challenged once more (if not taken out).

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/09

Sept Chgo Wheat: $4.92 – $5.05

Sept KC Wheat: $4.12 – $4.24

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