Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 5 ½ cents lower ($3.59 ½), Dec 5 ¾ cents lower ($3.68 ¾) & March 5 ¾ cents lower ($3.81 ¼)

Sept Chgo Ethanol closed $0.011 cents a gallon higher ($1.302) & Oct $0.012 cents higher ($1.307)

What an ugly day; an outside day registering new lows for the current break as well as registering a new contract low close!!! Pro Farmer’s early returns from Ohio and S. Dakota prop up corn prices Monday night. Adding to some of that nighttime strength was the slight decline in corn crop conditions from the USDA Monday afternoon. Rainfall that moved through Iowa and Illinois during the day today took prices back down. Given the late maturity of the corn crop these rains are deemed to be beneficial. I personally did not hear much out of the “tour” today other than an immature crop in Indiana and the solid potential for Nebraska. Failing Chgo wheat prices added additional weight on the corn market. Adding to all of this is the reminder of our poor demand.

I can’t imagine there is much cash corn moving unless the US producer is throwing in the towel on his old crop. Selected locations have seen basis improvements from slow cash movement. The Gulf however does very little reflecting the slow export demand for US corn. September corn does some fractional improvement on the spread while Dec forward spreads continue to look soft.

Late last week, after we saw some friendly looking private corn crop estimates from reputable sources, many went home with the idea the Pro Farmer crop tour findings would be the savior to the corn market. Today’s dismal performance almost obliterates that idea. As far as I’m concerned we’ll have to get deep into harvest before we truly know what we have out there. With that said the next stop on the downside is the contract low at 3.63 ¾.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/21

Sept Corn: $3.55 – $3.64  

Dec Corn: $3.64 – $3.73

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