Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

September Soybeans closed 1 ¾ cents higher ($8.55 ¾), Nov 1 ¾ cents higher ($8.68 ¼) & Jan 1 ½ cents higher ($8.82)

September Soybean Meal closed $2.0 higher ($294.0), Oct $2.0 higher ($295.9) & Dec $2.3 higher ($299.5)

September Soybean Oil closed 25 pts lower ($28.43), Oct 26 pts lower ($28.54) & Dec 25 pts lower ($28.79)

Given the rains that went through the eastern half of Iowa and a good portion of Illinois today I’m not sure what kept the soybean market alive other than the stronger soybean meal prices. If there is an answer it’s the low level of maturity in many areas of the Midwest. To date I have not seen any calls for an early frost for the next number of weeks. There are calls for below normal temps in the forecasts but these forecasts are also calling for above normal moisture. One does not normally get frosted when skies are cloudy. The man in WH keeps the rhetoric alive that China still wants a deal but it seems both sides are willing to continue playing hardball.

Soybean processors appear to be letting the market come to them while river locations reach a bit to fill the current export demand. Remember that the current export demand is from older sales and “captive” audiences. Soybean spreads ran steady upfront with fractional improvements as one went forward. Soybean meal interiors offers continue to look for business. Bids for export edge higher. Meal spreads were steady upfront with a slightly weaker bias to January. January forward spreads were firm suggesting a lack of product from SA for the first quarter of the New Year.

Meal and soybeans register inside days of Monday. This suggests the trade is not yet willing to sell these markets into the hole. The immaturity of the crop can make a case for consolidation at recent levels. Currently I’m with the frame of mind the best we do is jerk around going nowhere fast.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/21

Nov Soybeans: $8.65 ($8.60) – $8.75

Dec Soybean Meal: $296.0 (?) – $302.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $28.60 – $29.25

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.