Sept Corn closed 2 ¼ cents higher ($3.61 ½), Dec 2 ½ cents higher ($3.75 ¾) & March 2 cents higher ($3.86 ¼)
August Chgo Ethanol closed 0.020 cents a gallon higher ($1.445), Sept 0.007 cents higher ($1.437)
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 338.5 K T. old crop vs. 300-700 K T. expected – 747.5 K T. new crop vs. 400-800 K T. expected
Flat price Dec corn balks at the suspected resistance level, $3.80. The high of the day was made late in the Wednesday night session while the day’s low was made mid-morning of the day session. After the day’s low was made there was great effort trying to reject that low but by the end of the day that mid-morning low was matched. Granted prices finished higher on the day but they did favor the low side of the day’s trading range. It is my thought that what support the corn market saw during the day session was due to the unwinding of long wheat / short corn spreads. News of the day had new crop corn weekly export sales favoring the high side of guesstimates and the President stating he was working towards making E15 fuel available all year long.
Changes in the advertised interior corn bids are mixed. The Ohio River is 2 cents better, Cedar Rapids, IA 2 cents lower and Illinois River bids reading unchanged to 1-4 cents lower. The Gulf is trying to hold on to recent strength as some softness is being seen. The Sept/Dec corn spread closes at a 14 ¼ cent carry, its contract low. This would suggest we are going to see a wall of corn coming at us in late August, Early Sept. Dec forward spreads, however, continue to show signs of improvement. The improvement in the Dec forward spreads is trying to suggest we will be the corn market to the World until SA comes on line next spring.
The inability of Dec corn to break through its suspected resistance level of $3.80 suggests we have some backing and filling of the recent rally to look forward to. As of this writing I continue to hear of both good pollination and not so good pollination. I have learned through the years that the areas of not so good pollination yell the loudest. I do believe that for the August 9th production update we’ll see average trader estimates below the 180 bpa level. If I had to guess right now what the USDA might say its 177 to 178 (just my opinion).
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/27
Sept Corn: $3.54 – $3.64
Dec Corn: $3.68 – $3.78
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