August Soybeans closed ½ cent higher ($8.61 ¼), Sept ¼ cent higher ($8.66 ¼) & Nov ¼ cent higher ($8.76)
August Soybean Meal closed $2.6 higher ($332.6), Sept $2.7 higher ($332.1) & Dec $3.2 higher ($331.7)
August Soybean Oil closed 26 pts lower ($28.15), Sept 24 pts lower ($28.27) & Dec 24 pts lower ($28.58)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 538.2 K T. old crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected – 963.8 K T. new crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 166.4 K T. old crop vs. 50-175 K T. expected – 37.6 K T. new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – <-4.4> K T. old crop vs. 8-25 K T. expected – 5.4 K T. new crop vs. 0-15 K T. expected
The soybean complex saw a euphoric rally in the Wednesday night session stemming from the announcement that the EU would buy more US soybeans. The soybean complex came back to reality during the day session. The night time high fell just shy of the suspected $9.00 resistance level. The majority of the day session was spent giving back the nighttime’s 20 cent gains. The news of the day was a stout looking new crop soybean sales report, 963.8 K T. and a decent looking old crop meal sales report. Sure we may be losing the Chinese soybean business but it appears we are getting it from everyone else.
Interior river bids for soybeans continue to ease. I’m thinking this is part logistical issues as well as processors diverting beans from the river to their crush plants. Board crush margins are stabilizing from the recent slide. Soybean spreads ran fractionally better out to March. March forward spreads were pretty flat. The interior cash soybean meal remains quiet while offers at the Gulf ease. Meal spreads were soft upfront while new crop meal spreads had a firm bias.
Is today’s high in November beans going to be it until we see what the USDA has to say on August 9th? I hope everyone is aware we are moving into the critical maturity period for the developing soybean crop. For the near term we still have a bit of dry bias with below normal temps but as we move into the first full week of August it appears we are going to see a bit of a change to normal temps and above normal moisture. If true I can see the soybean market moving into a trading range affair with today’s high being the topside. The soybean meal market may see something similar develop as today’s highs didn’t see the light of day once the day session started.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/27
Nov Soybeans: $8.65 ($8.58) – $8.90
Dec Soybean Meal; $328.0 – $334.5
Dec Soybean Oil: $28.25 – $29.00
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