Sept Corn closed 5 ¼ cents higher ($3.67 ¼), Dec 5 cents higher ($3.81 ¼) & March 5 cents higher ($3.91 ¾)
August Chgo Ethanol closed 0.016 cents a gallon higher ($1.453), Sept 0.013 cents higher ($1.450)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.658 M T. vs. 1.000-1.400 M T. expected
Weekly Corn Condition & Progress – 72% GE (unch) vs. 71% expected vs. 61% year ago – Silking – 91% vs. 82% 5-year average – Dough Stage – 38% vs. 20% 5-year average
Flat price corn was strong right out of the box Sunday night and strengthened even further during the Monday day session. Concerns about the EU crop, the Black Sea crop and ideas the US will be the corn crop to world for the next number of months is the rationale for pushing prices to levels not seen since mid-June when prices were falling out of bed. Weekly export inspections continue to be strong. For the last week or so the trade has been questioning the idea that the national US corn yield will be 180 plus. If I had to guess where trader estimates come in I’m thinking 177-178 bpa. We’ll start seeing private estimates (FC Stone, Informa) later this week. I’m thinking news wires surveys will be going out shortly; results should be known late this week, early next week.
Bids for corn along the riverways that feed to the Gulf run noticeably lower. A combination of higher freight and increased cash movement are responsible. Despite this Sept gained a ¼ cent on Dec; only a ½ cent better than recent contract lows. Dec runs flat to March while both Dec and March gain on May forward; most notable vs. the 2019-20 crop year. The forward bull spreads working suggests the idea of great corn business for the next number of months.
New highs, new high closes for the current rally suggests the managed money sector wants to be long. Any remaining spec shorts, I would think, are now gone. The only remaining hurdle to the upside is what the USDA may have to say on the 9th. For what it is worth trade ideas have current corn conditions running unchanged with last week to down 1%. The USDA reports the current corn as 72% GE (unch).
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/31
Sept Corn: $3.62 – $3.70 ($3.75)
Dec Corn: $3.76 – $3.84 ($3.89)
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.