August Soybeans closed 4 ½ cents higher ($8.75), Sept 5 ½ cents higher ($8.80 ¾) & Nov 5 ¾ cents higher ($8.91)
August Soybean Meal closed $1.2 higher ($333.9), Sept $1.1 higher ($332.9) & Dec $2.6 higher ($333.7)
August Soybean Oil closed 25 pts lower ($28.31), Sept 21 pts lower ($28.46) & Dec 17 pts lower ($28.85)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 740.3 K T. vs. 500-700 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Condition & Progress – 70% GE (unch) vs. 69% expected vs. 59% year ago – Blooming – 86% vs. 77% 5-year average – Setting Pods – 60% vs. 41% 5-year average
Not to be left out of the bull move that is happening in the feed grain sector soybeans move higher Sunday night, stay relatively firm Monday. It should be noted that the day’s high for November beans was set early in the Sunday night session (matching last Thursday’s high). The balance of the Sunday night session and Monday’s day session was spent in a consolidating type manner mostly between $8.88 and $8.94. Soybean meal was firm all day but unable to break out of its weeks’ long trading range. Soybean oil tried to run higher early but succumbed to inter-market spreading; selling bean ol vs. long meal and soybeans. Most of the rationale for the higher soybean prices is mixed weather forecasts as we enter the month of August. Most agree that by the end of this week we will see much warmer temps while forecasts for moisture run highly variable depending on which forecaster you choose to follow.
River bids for soybeans take it on the chin hard. Higher freight and increased movement are most responsible. August loses to Sept ahead of first notice day (tonight, tomorrow morning). It will be interesting to see how August soybean deliveries pan out as in early July registrations sat at just over 2000 vs. coming into today at just over 100. Bear spreads in soybeans were evident all the way out to May 2019. Offers to cash meal for export are edging lower as Argie premiums are such they undercut US origin. Old crop meal (2017-18) loses noticeably to new crop (2018-19). Board crush margins continue to be in a “bear” mode.
Soybeans double top against last week’s high. $9.00-$9.05 remains a formidable hurdle for November. Old crop soybean meal remains range bound. New crop soybean meal is suggesting it wants to go higher. As goes the soybean meal so goes the soybeans. Soybean oil continues to show an upflagging effort. For what it is worth the trade is expecting to see soybean conditions decline 1%. The USDA says soybeans are now rated 70% GE (unch). The trade was expecting 1% decline. Forecasts will go far is dictating direction for the near term (see the latest from the NWS at the end of my letter – it looks like a “ridge” is setting up; Iowa west with a hot & dry bias – Illinois east warm and wet).
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/31
Nov Soybeans: $8.80 – $9.05
Dec Soybean Meal; $330.0 – $341.0
Dec Soybean Oil: $28.50 – $29.40
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.