Sept Corn closed 1 ¾ cents higher ($3.66 ¾), Dec 1 ¾ cents higher ($3.81 ¼) & March 2 cents higher ($3.92 ¼)
August Chgo Ethanol closed 0.015 cents a gallon lower ($1.430), Sept unchanged ($1.441)
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.064 million bpd vs. 1.074 last week – Stocks – 22.0 million bbls vs. 21.7 last week – the grind is down yet stocks are up
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 292.1 K T. old crop vs. 300-600 K T. expected – 986.1 K T. new crop vs. 400-800 K T. expected
It seems flat price corn continues to be a follower vs. being a leader. On Wednesday it appeared corn was following soybeans, today it seemed corn was following wheat. At one point mid-morning Dec corn was near 8 cents higher when wheat was 34 cents higher. When wheat sold off to just up a few cents on the day corn sold off to 2 cents higher on the day. Overall I thought corn did real well for itself. New crop corn export sales were interpreted as quite solid. Wednesday afternoon FC Stone suggested a national corn yield of 178.1 bpa. The trade’s reaction to this was rather muted; not bearish. It is my thought that if the USDA comes in with a similar yield much of it could be offset with an increase in disappearance. Informa will be out tomorrow I’m told.
For the most part interior cash corn bids continue to show a defensive look. As we draw closer to the Labor Day weekend and beyond many feel we will be seeing a wall of corn coming at us; both old crop and new crop. The Gulf market appears to be nothing to write home about. The nearby Sept/Dec corn spreads stays wide and now we’re seeing the Dec forward spreads deteriorate. None of this spread motion gives me any warm and fuzzies for the near term despite my thoughts the US will be the corn market to the World until SA comes on line early next spring.
It is my thought that Dec corn will continue to honor the suspected resistance level of $3.90 or so until we see what the USDA has to say next Friday. I would like to think support will be against the $3.70 level. As of this writing daily momentum indicators appear to be struggling to maintain a bullish bias. We have to remember last year the USDA blew away traders’ expectations with a yield 3.3 bpa higher than the average guess.
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.