August Soybeans closed 4 ¼ cents lower ($8.82 ½), Sept 4 ½ cents lower ($8.87) & Nov 4 ¼ cents lower ($8.97 ½)
August Soybean Meal closed $3.7 lower ($332.8), Sept $3.5 lower ($331.0) & Dec $3.4 lower ($332.6)
August Soybean Oil closed 33 pts lower ($28.12), Sept 33 pts lower ($28.29) & Dec 34 pts lower ($28.61)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 93.7 K T. old crop vs. 150-500 K T. expected – 543.3 K T. new crop vs. 300-700 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 79.0 K T. old crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected – 57.3 K T. new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 14.2 K T. old crop vs. 5-20 K T. expected – 1.3 K T. new crop vs. 0-15 K T. expected
What appears to be heightening trade tensions coupled with moderating private weather forecasts keeps the soybean market under the gun on Thursday. Granted the soybean market finished noticeably off of its early lows the product markets acted as a weight on the bean market’s neck. New crop export sales were deemed as nothing special. Old crop soybean sales featured cancellations of about 315 K T. Wednesday’s FC Stone yield projection, 51.5 bpa, was taken as bearish. If the USDA comes close to that figure while leaving disappearance near unchanged it would not be surprising to see a projected carryout with a 7 in front of it.
Most interior cash soybean bids continue to show a bearish bias. Savanna, IL did improve its basis by 6 cents but that is more of a reaction to when it rolled to Nov from August at a 22 cent spread. The Gulf remains uninspiring. Soybean spreads ran steady to soft upfront while bear spreading was more noticeable against March forward. Not much happens with the interior soybean meal basis while the export market shows a pseudo firm bias but with no business right now. Meal spreads were soft upfront; noticeably more bearish against Jan forward.
The inter-market price action is suggesting to me we could see Nov beans trade between $8.75 and $9.10 between now and next Friday. Dec meal looks like it wants to see what the mid $320’s look like, again. The recent 3 week old upflagging effort in bean oil appears to be breaking down.
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/03
Nov Soybeans: $8.85 ($8.75) – $9.05
Dec Soybean Meal; $329.0 – $336.0
Dec Soybean Oil: $28.35 – $29.90
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