Sept Corn closed 1 ¼ cents higher ($3.71), Dec 1 cent higher ($3.85 ¼) & March 1 cents higher ($3.96 ½)
Sept Chgo Ethanol closed 0.007 cents a gallon lower ($1.434), Oct 0.007 cents lower ($1.428)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.287 M T. vs. 1.000-1.700 M T. expected
Weekly Corn Conditions & Progress – 71% GE (-1%) vs. 71% expected vs. 60% year ago – Silking – 96% vs. 92% 5-year average – Dough Stage – 57% vs. 37% 5-year average – Dented – 12% vs. 6% 5-year average
After seeing a two-sided trade for a good portion of the Sunday night trade Monday’s day session brought us a quietly higher trade. It almost seemed the corn market was caught between a quite strong wheat market vs. a weak soybean market. Weekly export inspections were deemed as okay but not as strong as some would have preferred. Last week’s private production estimates (yield 175.4 to 178.1) were deemed almost friendly considering that in early July many had been thinking 180 plus. We have to remember that last year private estimates were noticeably understated vs. what the USDA came in with. What it’s going to come down to is whether or not projected demand can offset a higher crop size.
Cash markets (basis) remain soft whether it’s in the interior or for export. Spreads run steady to soft on the day. I have to think that over the next 4 to 8 weeks we’re going to see a wall of corn coming at the market; at least that’s what the spreads are telling me.
I remain with the idea that up to report time on Friday Dec corn will remain in a range from the mid-low $3.70’s to the mid-low $3.90’s. The trade is anticipating a 1% decline in crop conditions this afternoon. A decline greater than that should have prices testing the outlined resistance level. The USDA reports 71% of the nation’ corn crop is now rated GE (-1%).
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/07
Sept Corn: $3.64 – $3.77 (?)
Dec Corn: $3.78 – $3.91 (?)
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.