Soybeans Commentary

storck

Soybeans – Just My Opinion

August Soybeans closed 9 cents lower ($8.77 ¼), Sept 8 ¾ cents lower ($8.82 ¾) & Nov 8 ¾ cents lower ($8.93 ½)

August Soybean Meal closed $2.5 lower ($330.0), Sept $2.2 lower ($328.4) & Dec $2.3 lower ($329.5)

August Soybean Oil closed 6 pts lower ($28.29), Sept 7 pts lower ($28.45) & Dec 6 pts lower ($28.80)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 893.1 K T. vs. 500-750 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Conditions & Progress – 67% GE (-3%) vs. 69% expected vs. 60% year ago – Blooming – 92% vs. 86% 5-year average – Setting Pods – 75% vs. 58% 5-year average

Continued trade tensions between China and the US coupled with almost neutral to bearish weather conditions have the soy complex under the gun on Sunday night, Monday. China continues to say they will fight fire with fire and not back down from US imposed trade tariffs. The meal market was the weak sister of the product markets. Soybeans will historically struggle as long as the meal market is soft looking. As of this writing the best supporting issue for the soybean market would be if the Corn Belt turns noticeably dry for the balance of the month. The trade is expecting to see a 1% decline in conditions on this afternoon’s crop update. The USDA reports the nation’s soybean crop is now rated 67% GE (-3%). This should give a spark to the soybean market tonight.

The interior soybean basis is weak as is the Gulf basis. Spreads ran mostly steady on the day. Offers to sell cash meal in the interior continue to be a non-event while export offers for cash meal continue to hold their own. Meal spreads ran slightly softer on the day.

Following last Tuesday’s interim spike high and its failure to follow through the soybean market has gone into a “treading water” mode. The meal market has retreated back into support levels that were established in mid-July. Bean oil looks like its recent upflagging efforts are on the verge of rolling over. If the USDA on Friday prints a projected soybean carryout with a 7 in front of it I don’t know how the soybean market will be able to keep it together without some sort of resolve between the US and China.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/07

Nov Soybeans: $8.84 – $9.10

Dec Soybean Meal; $327.0 – $336.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $28.35 – $29.20

 

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