Sept Corn closed 2 cents lower ($3.69 ¼), Dec 2 ¼ cents lower ($3.82 ¾) & March 2 cents lower ($3.94)
Sept Chgo Ethanol closed 0.013 cents a gallon lower ($1.421), Oct 0.013 cents lower ($1.415)
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 554.5 K T. old crop vs. 300-600 K T. expected – 657.7 K T. new crop vs. 400-900 K T. expected
CONAB – Brazilian Corn Production – 82.18 M T. (26.83+55.35) vs. 82.92 M T. (26.91+56.01) last month vs. 83.50 M T. USDA
USDA Guesstimates – US Corn Production – 14.411 billion bu. – Yield – 176.2 bpa – Projected US carryout – 1.636 billion bu. – Projected World carryout – 152.59 M T.
Flat price moves into a minor correction ahead of tomorrow’s USDA production, supply-demand update. Weekly export sales were deemed “as expected”. Weather worries for the US (western dry bias) and export origins elsewhere in the world all took a back seat to position squaring, profit taking, ahead of tomorrow’s numbers. All we do now is sit and wait. US production is expected to see modest increases based on traders’ expectations. It’s going to come down to demand. World numbers will be closely scrutinized for evidence of better demand as move into the new marketing year.
The interior corn basis continues to show a defensive bias. The Gulf appears to be easing with the idea the log jam at the Alton locks may open up by sometime this weekend. Spreads showed minimal if any changes on the day. Overall corn spreads remain relatively wide. Most of this is in anticipation of a wall of corn (old crop and new crop) coming at the market during Sept and Oct.
The recent daily price action in corn looks like a top. Closes below $3.78 will probably rattle the cages of recent longs. Are the funds remembering what happened last year when trade ideas noticeably underestimated the USDA?
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/10
Sept Corn: $3.62 – $3.76 ($3.82)
Dec Corn: $3.76 – $3.90 ($3.94)
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.