August Soybeans closed 6 cents lower ($8.87 ¾), Sept 6 ¾ cents lower ($8.93) & Nov 6 ½ cents lower ($9.04)
August Soybean Meal closed $3.1 lower ($334.0), Sept $2.9 lower ($332.6) & Dec $2.5 lower ($334.9)
August Soybean Oil closed 3 pts lower ($28.42), Sept 4 pts lower ($28.55) & Dec 3 pts lower ($28.88)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 421.8 K T. old crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected – 532.5 K T. new crop vs. 300-600 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 109.6 K T. old crop vs. 40-150 K T. expected – 19.9 K T. new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 10.9 K T. old crop vs. 8-24 K T. expected – no new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
CONAB – Brazilian Soybean Production – 118.98 M T. vs. 118.88 M T. last month vs. 119.50 M T. USDA
USDA announces 135.0 K T. new crop soybean meal sold to Philippines
USDA Guesstimates – US Soybean Production – 4.407 billion bu. – Yield – 49.6 bpa – Projected US carryout – 638 million bu. – Projected World carryout – 99.33 M T.
Ongoing trade tensions with China and thoughts of a bearish looking USDA report tomorrow trumped the recent idea of dryness impacting pod-filling on Thursday. Weekly export sales for soybeans were okay for old crop, middle of the road for new crop. Soybean meal sales coupled with the USDA announced sale were decent. New crop meal sales were disappointing. Soybean oil sales were not worth paying attention to.
The interior soybean basis remains on the defensive. The Gulf is not showing any particular need for soybeans. Soybean spreads, Sept forward, showed fractional losses all the way out to next August. Offers to sell cash meal in the interior run mostly unchanged. Export offers for cash meal are noticeably lower. Meal spreads showed their recent bearish bias out to March.
The price action in soybeans is that of an upflag. Soybean meal is advertising trading range. Soybean oil is also advertising an upflag. It the USDA soybean report is deemed neutral I think prices will try to rally on the western belt dry forecasts. Overall I don’t think the complex is going anywhere fast unless the USDA puts a 7 in front of the projected soybean carryout.
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/10
Nov Soybeans: $8.85 – $9.25
Dec Soybean Meal; $328.5 – $343.0
Dec Soybean Oil: $28.40 – $29.40
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