Sept Corn closed ¾ cent lower ($3.61 ½), Dec ½ cent lower ($3.76) & March ¼ cent lower ($3.87 ¾)
Sept Chgo Ethanol closed 0.012 cents a gallon lower ($1.357), Oct 0.009 cents lower ($1.358)
USDA announces 114.5 K T. of corn sold to unknown – 55.0 K T. old crop (2017-18), 59.5 K T. new crop (2018-19)
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.072 million bpd vs. 1.100 million bpd last week – Stocks – 23.0 million bbls vs. 22.9 million bbls last week
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-600 K T. expected – new crop vs. 300 K – 1.000 M T. expected
Flat price corn goes it alone on Wednesday with only fractional losses on the day compared to much steeper losses elsewhere within the Ag complex. Initially corn was trading with trading with the crowd; easing when they eased, firming when they tried to firm. By midday it started becoming apparent that the corn market was receiving inter-market spread support vs. the wheat and soybean markets. Adding to the underlying support are continued ideas that US corn will be the primary supply to a good portion of the world for the next number of months.
The interior corn basis trades all over the map on Wednesday. Locations that feed to the Gulf continue show improvement now that the logjam at Alton, IL has been alleviated. Toledo dumps their spot corn basis by 10 cents. Processors are not doing anything special. The Gulf remains quiet. Corn spreads spent the day inching/fractionally wider. The trade is still anticipating a spate of old crop corn to move prior to the end of the month. Dec corn against $3.80 may prompt some new crop to move as well.
So how good is my idea of inter-market spreading keeping the corn market alive? It will keep the market alive but I doubt it will be able to give us much more upside advancement. I’ still thinking $3.78 to $3.80 (Dec) will hold the current attempt to rally. If I’m right with my idea the corn market will soon roll over Monday’s low of $3.66 will give way to a move closer to $3.60.
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/16
Sept Corn: $3.56 – $3.65
Dec Corn: $3.70 – $3.79
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.