Sept Soybeans closed 10 ¾ cents lower ($8.57 ½), Nov 10 ¾ cents lower ($8.69) & March 9 ½ cents lower ($8.92 ½)
Sept Soybean Meal closed $6.3 lower ($329.5), Oct $6.5 lower ($330.1) & Dec $6.5 lower ($331.3)
Sept Soybean Oil Closed 40 pts lower ($27.88), Oct 41 pts lower ($28.00) & Dec 41 pts lower ($28.20)
NOPA July 2018 Crush – Soybeans – 167.733 million bu. vs. 161.745 million bu. expected – Soybean Oil Stocks – 1.764 billion lbs. vs. 1.783 billion lbs. expected – Soybean Meal Exports – 737.4 K T. vs. 857.2 K T. in June
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. 300-700 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 40-200 K T. expected – new crop vs. 25-100 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-24 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-80 K T. expected
It looked like soybean processors jumped all over the Board crush after its recent 30 cent advance as product losses outweighed the soybean losses. Forecasts are calling for improving weather to finish off a good portion of the nation’s soybean crop. The strength in the US Dollar weighed on prices making SA origin a bit more attractive for what remaining soybeans they have to sell. The NOPA crush was deemed friendly for soybeans but that was considered old news since the USDA has been advancing the US crush rate for the past number of months. NOPA meal exports for July were deemed disappointing given the idea that Argentina’s crush rate is supposed to be down. The lower than expected soybean oil stocks fell on deaf ears due to lower palm prices. Additionally – the idea of a strong crush rate in the US will meet the suspected soybean meal demand but at soybean oil’s expense.
The interior soybean basis, like corn, is all about location. River locations that feed down the Gulf continue to show improvement. Toledo dumps its spot bid for beans by 8 cents. Processors appear to be standing pat thinking they have the upper hand since the export market is slow. The Gulf basis for soybeans continues to have a soft look. Soybean spreads were steady Sept through Jan and then eased off. Offers to sell cash meal in the domestic market are steady while Tuesday’s bump higher in the export market was given back to today. Meal spreads mirrored the activity in the soybean spreads.
As goes the soybean meal market so goes the soybean market. Need I say more?
Daily Support & Resistance for 08/16
Nov Soybeans: $8.60 – $8.80
Dec Soybean Meal; $327.0 – $336.0
Dec Soybean Oil: $27.90 – $28.75
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