Corn Commentary

storck

Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 7 ¼ cents lower ($3.52 ½), Dec 7 ½ cents lower ($3.66 ¾) & March 7 ¼ cents lower ($3.79)

Sept Chgo Ethanol closed 0.029 cents a gallon lower ($1.320), Oct 0.032 cents lower ($1.320)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. 700 K – 1.000 M T. expected

3rd day early assessment from ProFarmer Crop Tour – Western Iowa corn yield potential above average – Central, west-central Illinois corn crop seen above average despite some fields showing signs of stress

On Monday the corn market leaks lower. On Tuesday the corn market leaks lower. On Wednesday the corn market accelerates lower. The ongoing ProFarmer crop tour has found above average results at all of the locations they have visited so far. This tour has a history of being lighter with their yield projections vs. what the USDA suggests. Adding the ugly price action we saw technically inspired selling today when Dec corn traded below the $3.70 level. Once it became apparent that we wouldn’t be able to close back up above that level selling accelerated into the close.

What changes we saw in the interior corn basis today were lower bids. I think most in the cash corn business realize we are going to see a wall of corn come at us over the next 2-6 weeks if not longer. Spreads stay wide suggesting verification of this idea. The Gulf basis is trying to retrace higher from levels we saw late last week, earlier this week. It was not enough to stem the tide.

If the mid to low $3.60’s cannot hold Dec corn I have to think we are going to see probes of the congestive looking support levels we saw in early July; roughly $3.60 to $3.52. Tomorrow is Thursday, weekly export sales day. If the corn market is going to hold we need to start seeing market making demand or a test of contract lows or lower cannot be ruled out. In the near term I would be a bit hesitant to sell current levels as inter-day technical considerations are beginning to read rather low.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/23

Sept Corn: $3.48 ½ – $3.58 ½

Dec Corn: $3.63 – $3.73                   

 

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