Soybeans Commentary

storck

Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Sept Soybeans closed 16 ¼ cents lower ($8.58 ¼), Nov 15 ¾ cents lower ($8.70 ¼) & March 14 ¾ cents lower ($8.95 ½)

Sept Soybean Meal closed $3.8 lower ($321.1), Oct $3.7 lower ($322.0) & Dec $4.0 lower ($323.2)

Sept Soybean Oil Closed 5 pts lower ($28.49), Oct 6 pts lower ($28.73) & Dec 7 pts lower ($28.95)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. 400-650 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-200 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

3rd day early assessment from ProFarmer Crop Tour – Western Iowa soybean crop variable but generally higher than average – soybean plants in central, west-central Illinois point to a bumper harvest

The ProFarmer crop tour continues to find the potential for above average soybean yields. The US is entertaining a “low level” Chinese trade delegation as we speak. Additional tariffs are scheduled to be enacted tomorrow. If the current trade talks go successfully it will lead to “higher level” trade delegations this fall. The bottom line – no one expects much to come out of the current meetings. Adding to today’s ugly performance was technical selling when Nov beans traded through the $8.80 level. The inability to reject the initial break attracted additional selling going into the close.

The interior soybean basis ran steady to noticeably lower on Wednesday. River locations that had been trying to improve lost it all and then some. The Gulf soybean basis is off of the lows it saw late last week but is not helping the market as soybean spreads continue to soften. Not much happens with the interior offers to sell soybean meal. Offers to sell meal for export did improve. Meal spreads has a slight bullish bias out to March but then gave way May forward.

Trend line support for Nov beans comes in around the $8.60 level. Failure there will suggest a test of the recently established congestive type support at $8.55 to $8.50. Like corn the short term inter-day technical indicators are starting to read rather low. Soybean meal is coming close to trading range support ideas. I’m not sure we need to sell current levels to participate in the idea of yet lower prices to come. Granted no one is expecting much to come out of the current “low level” trade talks but any whiff of an accord will result with a sharp knee-jerk reaction to the upside.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/23

Nov Soybeans: $8.63 ($8.55) – $8.82

Dec Soybean Meal; $320.0 (?) – $328.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $28.20 – $28.85

 

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