July Corn closed ¾ cent higher ($3.43 ½), Sept ¼ cent higher ($3.52 ¼) & Dec ¼ cent higher ($3.64 ½)
July Chgo Ethanol closed 0.022 cents a gallon lower ($1.403), August 0.042 cents lower ($1.393)
USDA announces 137.0 K T. new crop optional origin corn sold to S. Korea
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.067 million bpd vs. 1.072 previous week – Stocks – 22.0 million bbls vs. 21.7 previous week
Informa suggests the 2018 US corn crop is 14.932 billion bu.; yield 176.0 bpa
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 500-800 K T. expected – new crop vs. 300-500 K T. expected
Flat price corn starts the day with strong prices. The rationale for the early strength was the ongoing heat which may impact pollination (won’t know the effects for a few weeks yet) and reports of flooded fields in NW Iowa, southern Minnesota and eastern S. Dakota. Adding to that early strength were surging wheat prices. Unfortunately the strength did not last as sagging soybean prices and tariff fears had prices selling off. Dec corn had a daily range of 5 ¾ cents higher to 1 ¾ cents lower. The end result was fractionally better on the day. If China does enact tariffs on US imports (agriculture) the corn market will trade in sympathy but realize China is slated to only import 5.0 M T. of corn for the coming year. With that said I have to question how much is left on the downside.
Interior cash basis reads steady to higher mostly from slow movement. Processors continue to show the best bids. Central Midwest river locations read steady while Toledo reads better. September forward corn spreads ran fractionally easier. I continue to see great demand, both for export and domestic usage, but the inability of the spreads to perform suggest we have the supply to meet the demand.
Daily technical data suggests the corn market still has a downside bias. Global politics will dictate price direction in the near term but I have to think in the longer term the corn market will revert back to supply-demand influences. Time will tell as it always does.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/06
Sept Corn: ??? – $3.59
Dec Corn: ??? – $3.71
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