July Chgo Wheat closed 17 ¼ cents lower ($4.80 ¼), Sept 21 cents lower ($4.80 ¼) & Dec 20 cents lower ($4.99 ½)
July KC Wheat closed 21 ¼ cents lower ($4.49 ½), Sept 17 ¾ cents lower ($4.70 ¾) & Dec 17 ¾ cents lower ($4.93 ¾)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 324.1 K T. vs. 300-500 K T. expected
Weekly Winter Wheat Ratings & Progress – 37% GE (unch) vs. 37% expected vs. 38% year ago – Harvested – 51% vs. 56% expected vs. 49% 5-year average
Weekly Spring Wheat Ratings & Progress – 77% GE (unch) vs. 76% expected vs. 37% year ago – Headed – 58% vs. 56% year ago vs. 48% 5-year average
Lower European prices had US futures higher early but when Europe started to slide to unchanged US futures slid even more so. Okay – US wheat futures are not their own man; that follow European/Russian prices. On Friday the trade was able to overlook bearish data from the USDA and rally with European prices due to the downgrade of the French crop. When Europe failed to sustain Friday’s rally the US trade now invoked the bearish data from the USDA. Anyone that got caught up trading the possibility of short supply in the US HRW continues to pay dearly for that miscue. It’s bad enough that the US is not competitive with the rest of the World but now to have a bigger than expected crop is like rubbing dirt in an already deep wound.
Interior cash markets are trying to keep in step with the flat price losses but not doing a very good job of it. Yes, basis levels are improving for HRW but not to the extent of market losses. KC spreads stay wide. Not much of a change is being noted in the SRW cash market. Sept Chgo forward spreads ran wider with the flat price selling. July Chgo trades in a world of its own due to the lack of deliveries.
Chgo prices are hanging by a thread as to support. Given where Sept Chgo closed on Monday it wouldn’t take much to see prices down another 15-20 cents. Sept KC appears ready to check out the bottoming the market did last December, January. Just like the rest of the grain sector wheat prices are showing modest degrees of oversold for both daily and shorter term technical data. What’s out there to run the tide remains to be seen.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/03
Sept Chgo Wheat: $4.75 (?) – $5.10
Sept KC Wheat: $4.66 (?) – $5.05
Here’s the Latest from the NWS
6-10 Day 8-14 Day
7/08-7/12 7/10-7/16
| Temps | Rain | Temps | Rain | ||
| N. Dakota | A | B | A | B | |
| S. Dakota | A | B | A | B | |
| Nebraska | A | B | A | B | |
| Kansas | A | B | A | B | |
| Oklahoma | A | A | A | B | |
| W. Texas | A | A | A | N | |
| Minnesota A | B | A | B | ||
| Iowa | A | B | A | B | |
| Missouri | A | B | A | B | |
| Arkansas | A | A | A | A | |
| Illinois | A | B | A | N | |
| Indiana | A | A | A | N | |
| Ohio | A | A | A | A | |
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.