Dec Corn closed 1 cent lower ($3.66 ¾), March ¾ cent lower ($3.79 ¼) & July ¾ cent lower ($3.93)
Nov Chgo Ethanol closes $0.004 cents a gallon lower ($1.273), Dec $0.008 cents lower ($1.285)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 653.0 K T. vs. 800 K – 1.100 M T. expected
Weekly Corn Crop Progress – Harvested – 63% vs. 64% expected vs. 63% 5-year average
Last Thursday corn prices had the look that they were about to become unglued; the market did not follow through. After Friday’s action the corn market had the look it was ready to challenge recent highs; so far the market has failed to show any conviction in following through. I’ll admit the crop size may be coming down some but the price action suggests, at best, we have a stalemate between supply and demand. The export market has been disappointing for the past few weeks (e.g. today’s weekly export inspections). Ethanol margins are such that we are lagging the USDA outlook for corn usage in this regard.
The interior cash corn market (basis) has taken on a mixed look. The Ohio River continues to firm as does one location on the Illinois River. Processor basis levels read steady to mixed (some a bit higher, some a bit lower). The Gulf appears to be steady holding onto last week’s improvement. Dec corn ran fractionally easier vs. its forward contracts with in the current crop year while March to Sept ran steady. New crop, 2019-20, was a fractional loser to the current crop year. I have to think that’s about the idea of noticeably increased plantings for next year. Overall spreads within the current crop year remain wide suggesting sufficient supplies of corn in the pipeline to satisfy the current demand.
The price action of the past number of months continues to advertise corn prices are in a broad trading range affair. Take out $3.60 Dec and it will get you $3.50. Take out $3.80 Dec and it will get you $3.90. As of this writing I don’t see anything out there for the near term that suggests this trading range affair is going to change anytime soon. Volatility remains relatively low further suggesting the corn market is going nowhere fast.
Daily Support & Resistance for 10/30
Dec Corn: $3.62 – $3.72
March Corn: $3.74 ½ – $3.84 ½
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