Dec closes 3 cents lower ($3.37 ¼), March 3 ¾ cents lower ($3.45 ¼) and July 4 ¼ cents lower ($3.59 ¾)
December Chgo Ethanol closes 0.1 cents a gallon higher (1.521), Jan 0.2 cents lower (1.461)
USDA announces 175 K T. grain sorghum sold to China
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 618.1 K T. vs. 900 K – 1.100 M T. expected
Lower wheat prices, strength in the US dollar, puny looking weekly export inspections and a continued influence from last week’s bearish USDA production/supply-demand report all work together to keep the corn market in a grinding lower trend . Despite the strength in the US dollar I’m told that the US is the corn market to the world until SA becomes available which won’t be until Feb/Apr. Since last Wednesday’s USDA report the daily trading funds have sold 27 K contracts. The recent sales of sorghum to China appear to be in response to their crackdown on the import of US DDG’s.
Interior cash corn markets are showing a mixed look on Monday as some are a bit easier, others a bit better and some just steady. The Gulf market continues to show an easier bias due to low freight costs. Corn spreads showed noticeable improvements with the nearby Dec contract leading the way. In areas where harvest has come and gone basis levels are moving higher as there is no movement. Harvest is winding down out west and there are some stories about storage tightness; cash corn movement continues to occur where this is a problem. I’m thinking corn spreads will have a bias to firm for the next 10 days or so and then we’ll begin to think about deliveries against the Dec contract and that in turn may soften the spreads – you know; liquidation ahead of first notice day.
For what it is worth the USDA is now suggesting that the US corn harvest has reached 93%
completion. This compares to the norm of 92%. The trade had been thinking 94% completed.
The daily technical look is clearly lower. The “however” is that now most inter-day day data reads oversold. Some of this can be alleviated with some minor backing and filling in the night session. We are at a point now that I can tout you support every 5 cents down beginning with the $3.35 level (Dec). The short term oversold can easily bring about some rallies but I think they would be limited to 7-9 cents.
Daily Support & Resistance Dec Corn: $3.34 – $3.42
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