Soybeans Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion

Nov Soybeans close 7 ½ cents lower ($9.76 ¾), Jan 6 ¾ cents lower ($9.86 ½) and March 6 ½ cents lower ($9.93 ½)
Dec Meal closes $2.8 lower ($306.7), Jan $3.0 lower ($308.3) and March $3.4 lower ($309.7)
Dec Bean Oil closes 13 pts higher ($34.98), Jan 12 pts higher ($35.21) and March 13 pts higher ($35.40)
USDA announces 132 K T. soybeans sold to China

Weekly Export Sales – Soybeans – old crop vs. 1.250-1.600 M T. expected; new crop vs. none expected – Soybean Meal – old crop vs. 100300 K T. expected – Soybean Oil – old crop vs. 8-30 K T. expected; new crop vs. none expected
Soybeans and soybean meal continue to move lower. The rationale for the lower move in soybeans is all about the idea that on Nov 9th the USDA will give us a higher yield vs. October and that will lead into a higher projected carryout. The meal market grinds lower from a lack of export as well as the domestic end-user not willing to go beyond hand-to-mouth usage. Bean oil gets some left handed support from inter-market spreading as well as higher competing veg oils (canola and palm). Adding to the bearish soybean price action is that we finally saw some deliveries against the November contract; 100 contracts with no noticeable stoppers.

Interior cash soybean markets are trying to show signs of stabilization (with emphasis on the word “trying”). The Gulf market appears to be struggling as it see-saws back and forth. The interior cash meal market still shows a lack of buyers. Soybean spreads ran softer on the day led by the November contract. Meal spreads are showing signs of an attempt at stabilization. Then again I’m not sure the Dec/March meal spread can get much wider than it has been. Longer term soybean spreads that some like to use as a harbinger of things to come still suggest the upside remains limited.
For the near term I still think the $9.80 ($9.75) level still represents some decent technical support for January beans. Failure at that level would suggest something closer to $9.65. Like corn daily technical indicators for beans and meal clearly read lower while the shorter term indicators suggest one doesn’t have to sell the current break to participate. I would like to think bean oil has gone low enough for the near term.
Jan Beans: $9.80 ($9.75) – $10.00 Dec Meal; $304.0 ($302.0) – $312.5 Dec Bn Oil: $34.60 – $35.40

 

Information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time.  This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed.  There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose.  There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors.  Investors should consider these RISKS   and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions.  No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL.  This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor.  NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information.  Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein