Dec closes 2 ¾ cents lower ($3.46 ¼), March 2 ¼ cents lower ($3.55 ½) and July 1 ¾ cents lower ($3.70)
November Chgo Ethanol closes 3.7 cents a gallon lower (1.639), Dec 2.3 cents lower (1.570)
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.022 M bpd vs. 991 K bpd previous week – Stocks – 19.7 M bbls vs. 19.9 M bbls previous week
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 700 K – 1.100 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected
Flat price corn takes its cue from recent price action – grinding lower. The decent looking ethanol grind was pretty much ignored. Thoughts are developing that on the upcoming USDA report the yield may come in better vs. earlier ideas that it would be lower. As the corn harvest accelerated many report better than expected yield results. There is also the thought that cash movement has improved even though most basis levels don’t really bear that out. I thought the recent weakness in the US dollar might bring us a bit better support but that is being offset by the idea that US corn origin is pretty much the market to the world right now.
Most interior cash corn markets have stabilized if not shown us some minor improvement. Decatur. IL is the only location of the ones that I track that is showing some easing today. The gulf market appears to be easing; I’m told that is in response to lower than expected freight rates. Corn spreads eased on the day. The Dec/March spread in September traded out to 11 cents under, came into 7 ¾ cents under as recent as yesterday and is now back out to 9 ¼ – 9 ½ cents under.
Today we saw the recent 2-week low taken out but it did not appear to be on very large volume. Today’s close is right on that previous 2-week low. Daily momentum indicators clearly point lower and do suggest downwards momentum is accelerating. While daily momentum indicators may suggest this shorter term inter-day
indicators suggest the market may be in line for some bouncing/retracement of the recent break. These shorter term indicators suggest the “wannabe” sellers can wait for some sort of retracement for new sales while “wannabe” buyers can use the current short term oversold indicators as scalping opportunities from the long side.
Daily Support & Resistance Dec Corn: $3.42 – $3.53
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