Corn Commentary


Just My Opinion

Dec closes ¾ cent lower ($3.48 ½), March unchanged ($3.58 ¼) and July ¼ cent higher ($3.73 ¼)
December Chgo Ethanol closes 1.0 cent a gallon higher (1.616), Jan 0.2 cent higher (1.554)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 800.9 K T. vs. 850 K – 1.050 M T. expected
Flat price makes new highs for the current rally Sunday night and then backs off during the day session to finish mixed on the day. Weekly export inspections were below the low end of expectations. It seemed the majority of the session was about positioning/posturing ahead of first notice day for the December contract as well as some month end squaring.
Most interior cash corn basis continues to show a steady to firm tone. River bids, however, are waffling a bit in response to the gulf’s posting which continues to show an easier tone. The Dec/March corn spread has been widening back out for the last week or so. Given what the gulf is doing coupled with the spread action it suggests we have enough corn in the pipeline for now based on the business we have now. I could be wrong but I would be surprised to see the Dec/March spread trade beyond an 11 cent carry.
The daily trend is reading higher but it is showing signs of slowing down. The recent closes (the past 5 days) are all within 1 ½ cents of one another. That is what is slowing the recent higher momentum. To resume the higher momentum we need to see closes above today’s high ($3.62 ½ March). Momentum will turn down with closes below today’s low ($3.55 ¾ March). Personally I have no axe to grind here as a move in either direction will be minimal in the grand scheme of things. Daily Support & Resistance March Corn: $3.54 – $3.63 ½ July Corn: $3.68 – $3.78


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