Wheat Commentary


Just My Opinion

Dec Chgo Wheat closes 6 ¼ cents lower ($3.89 ½), March 3 cents lower ($4.16 ½) and July 3 ¾ cents higher ($4.56)
Dec KC Wheat closes ¼ cent higher ($4.11 ½), March 1 cent higher ($4.30 ½) and July ½ cent higher ($4.53)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 221.9 K T. vs. 325-525 K T. expected
Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat – do you think US origin has a chance? The flat price to us may be attractive but when one adds in the value of the US Dollar maybe not so much
Chgo wheat continues to be the favorite short amongst the inter-market spreaders whether it’s against other wheat varieties or other Ags. Business for US wheat remains lacking as evidenced by the poor inspections. The “however” is that one of these days the sales will catch up; meaning sales have been running better vs. the inspections. The best potential is still with the Mpls market due to its hi-pro
followed by the KC market. Chgo, at best, remains a trading range affair.
Interior cash wheat markets are the tale of two markets – SRW does very little whether it’s in the interior or for export. The interior KC market is beginning to firm and the export market remains firm. The spread action in Chgo suggests big deliveries while the spread action in KC tells me nothing.
Today the USDA gave us its last wheat condition and progress report of the season. They are suggesting that 92% of the planted crop has emerged and that is in line with last year as well as the 5-year norm. They go on to say the condition of the crop is unchanged from last week – 11% excellent, 47% good, 32% fair, 8% poor and 2$ very poor.
If you believe in trading ranges you’re buying Chgo wheat (March) between $4.14 and $4.10. If you prefer the KC market you’re buying March between $4.25 and $4.20. Other than that I don’t know what to tell you.
Daily Support & Resistance March Chgo Wheat: $4.12 – $4.24 March KC Wheat: $4.25 – $4.36

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