Dec closes unchanged ($3.36 ¾), March ½ cent lower ($3.48 ½) and July ½ cent lower ($3.63 ½)
December Chgo Ethanol closes 1.0 cent a gallon higher (1.616), Jan 0.2 cent higher (1.554)
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.012 M bpd vs. 1.014 M bpd last week – Stocks – 18.4 million bbls vs. 19.0 million bbls last week
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 900 K – 1.200 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
On Tuesday the corn market (flat price and spreads led by the Dec) gets pummeled from fears of 1st notice day deliveries as well mandated position reductions (for the Dec contract). On Wednesday the corn market gets some minor support from the lack of deliveries and stronger energy prices. I say minor support as the US dollar was once again sharply higher. So given all of this “push-pull” the end result is the corn market goes nowhere fast.
The long term trend in the interior corn basis is higher while the shorter term trend is mixed. The gulf’s trend is lower long term as well as short term. The nearby Dec contract gained fractionally on the spread due to the lack of deliveries. The balance of the crop year spreads too ran a bit better while the old crop loses to the new crop. Old crop losing to new crop can be attributed to the USDA’s most recent idea that corn acres could decline by as much as 4.5 million next season. I have to think corn spreads within the current crop year (as well against next year) will stay depressed until we see Gulf prices begin to improve. It took March corn 6 days to rally from $3.48 to $3.62 ½ – It took March corn 1 ½ days to break from $3.62 ½ back down to $3.48. I think that pretty much says it all as to the make-up of the corn market. To me it just proves the path of least resistance is lower.
Daily Support & Resistance March Corn: $3.45 ½ – $3.52 July Corn: $3.60 – $3.67
Information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.