Jan soybeans close 10 ¼ cents lower ($10.32 ¼), March 9 ¾ cents lower ($10.41 ¼) and July 7 ¾ cents lower ($10.54)
Dec Meal closes $5.3 lower ($316.4), Jan $5.9 lower ($318.3) and March $5.6 lower ($321.1)
Dec Bean Oil closes 43 pts higher ($36.79), Jan 37 pts higher ($36.99) and March 36 pts higher ($37.25)
USDA announces 123 K T. soybeans sold to China
Weekly Export Sales – Soybeans – old crop vs. 1.000-1.400 M T. expected; new crop vs. none expected – Soybean Meal – old crop vs. 120300 K T. expected; new crop vs. none expected – Soybean Oil – old crop vs. 5-60 K T. expected; new crop vs. none expected
JUST MY OPINION – the recent day-to-day trading in the US soybean market has been greatly influenced by the Chinese trade in soybeans. Their market collapsed on Tuesday, stabilized on Wednesday. The US market sold off sharply on Tuesday and followed through on Wednesday. The trade in the meal market has been similar. Bean oil manages to hold its own due to the demand for bio-diesel as well as the sharp rise in the energy markets. given wheat is happening in the bean oil market I get the impression the US crusher will soon be processing for bean oil – that in turn creates a tremendous amount of soybean meal. I’m being told that US export prices for soybean meal are at 4-year lows. SA weather continues to be beneficial to the development of their crop. Supposedly Brazil will have soybeans available for export by last half January. The USDA gave us a US soybean sale to China; just 123 K T. this is the first sale announcement dating back to Nov 18th. I’m hearing that China has bought 10-15 cargoes of Brazilian beans in the last week or so. That would suggest that the US
soybean export market’s window is slowly closing.
The interior soybean basis shows a mixed to higher trend. The Gulf basis for soybeans is showing some improvement over the past couple of days. Soybeans spreads continue to show a softer tone. The interior meal basis continues to be soft as is the export market. Meal spreads were soft January forward. Board crush margins are showing some slight improvement (thank you very much bean oil).
Momentum is shifting to the downside for both beans and meal. The current price pattern in soybeans is very similar to that we saw in late October – that led to a 60 cent break. If we se the same now that would suggest Jan beans down to the $9.96 level. The momentum in bean oil still reads higher but the consolidation at our recent upper end has that momentum slowing but not yet shifting lower. In the past I’ve said that a soybean market influenced by soybean oil is no better than staying alive. Without a hiccup in the SA weather beans should grind lower over the near term with emphasis on the “grind”. Jan Beans: $10.25 – $10.46 Jan Meal; $315.0 – $323.5 Jan Bn Oil: $36.20 – $37.65 (?)
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