Corn Commentary
Dec Corn closes 3 ¼ cents lower ($3.51 ½), March 3 ¼ cents lower ($3.64) and July 3 cents lower ($3.79 ¼)
October Chgo Ethanol closes 0.021 cents a gallon higher ($1.566), Nov 0.013 cents higher ($1.510)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 676.8 K T. vs. 800 K – 1.100 M T. expected
Weekly Corn Crop Rating & Progress – 61% GE (unch) vs. 60% expected vs. 74% year ago – 34% Mature vs. 47% 5-year average – 7% Harvested vs. 10% expected vs. 11% 5-year average
Flat price corn remains dead in the water as it continues to trade inside Sept. 12th’s daily range. Harvest has barely gotten under way – early yield results remain highly variable. I have to think the corn market will remain dead in the water until we get a better handle on yield. Last Friday Informa suggested the yield will be 169.7 bpa vs. the USDA at 169.9. On the next USDA production update, Thursday, October 12th, acreage will/may also be seen. Given what the FSA had to say right after last Tuesday’s report it is thought we may see acres increase by a small amount. As of this writing it appears the trade remains cautious as to second guessing recent crop size updates.
Interior cash corn markets, if not steady are softer. This holds true for the Gulf as well. I’m told that current premiums at the Gulf are at an 8-year low for the current time frame. That says one thing and only one thing; too much corn!! Corn spreads ran flat to fractionally softer on the day.
As we continue to trade inside of last Tuesday’s range I can’t help but notice a succession of lower daily highs. If we could see a close above these recent daily highs it would go far in suggesting that maybe the flat price of corn has gone low enough for now. What’s out there in the near term that would prompt these closes remains to be seen.
Daily Support & Resistance for 09/19
Dec Corn: $3.46 – $3.62
March Corn: $3.58 – $3.74
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