Soybean Commentary
Nov Soybeans close 1 cent lower ($9.67 ¾), March¾ cent lower ($9.87) and July ½ cent lower ($10.02)
Dec Soybean Meal closes $1.2 higher ($312.6), March $1.6 higher ($317.1) and July $1.5 higher ($321.8)
Dec Soybean Oil closes 38 pts lower ($34.43), March 37 pts lower ($34.83) and July 40 pts lower ($35.15)
USDA announces 261 K T. soybeans sold to China; 126 K T. soybeans sold to Unknown
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 928.5 K T. vs. 1.000-1.300 M T. expected
Weekly Soybean Crop Rating & Progress – 59% GE (-1%) vs. 60% expected vs. 73% year ago – 41% Dropping Leaves vs. 43% 5-year average – 4% Harvested vs. 5% expected vs. 5% 5-year average
The soybean market eases after trying to take out last week’s high (failed to do so). Soybean meal makes new highs for its current rally but it too eases off as the day progressed. Soybean oil continues to see long profit taking not only in the flat price but on inter-market spreads as well. Bean oil is now the lowest it has been dating back to August 23rd. Some of the recent flat price strength had been tied to the idea that cash soybean traders have been caught between the gap of old crop availability vs. new crop availability. After today’s price action that appears to be easing. Longer term underlying support continues to be pent up Chinese demand as well as a dry start to Brazilian planting. Weather forecasters are hinting at the development of a La Nina down there. La Nina in Brazil means drier than normal.
Like cash corn cash soybeans if not steady are noticeably easier. Most of the easiness is being seen at river locations that feed down to the Gulf. Soybean spreads ran flat to fractionally easier on the day. Offers to sell cash soybean meal ran unchanged on the day holding onto last week’s minor gains. Meal spreads, however, ran fractionally easier on the day.
The recent price action the Nov soybean market is advertising the development of a trading range affair between $9.20 and $9.80. Although Dec meal finished higher on the day its price action too is trying to advertise it may have gone high enough for now. Dec soybean oil is clearly advertising it is in a liquidation phase; its next suggested support level is closer to $34.00.
Daily Support & Resistance for 09/19
Nov Beans: $9.55 – $9.80
Dec Meal; $307.0 – $316.0
Dec Bn Oil: $34.10 – $34.95
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