Corn Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Corn

Corn Commentary

Dec Corn closes 6 ¾ cents higher ($3.51 ¼), March 6 ¾ cents higher ($3.65 ¼) and July 6 ¼ cents higher ($3.81)

November Chgo Ethanol closes 0.033 cents a gallon higher ($1.419), Dec 0.027 cents higher ($1.412)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 614.0 K T. vs. 500-800 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Rating & Progress – 66% GE (+1%) vs. 65% expected vs. 74% Year ago – 96% mature vs. 97% 5-year average – 38% harvested vs. 44% expected vs. 59% 5-year average

Dec corn comes within a ½ cent of its contract low in early trading on Monday. Once it became apparent that follow through selling was not going to materialize short covering ensued. Other than the 13% hike in cattle on feed placements I did not see anything else that prompted the short covering. this one item should work to ensure decent feeding going forward into the marketing year. One item of note – According to my calculations following the daily fund flow (started in June of 2015) the spec trade was at its shortest dating back to late August of 2016. Weekly export inspections were nothing to write home about as cumulative inspections for the current marketing year trail year ago inspections by 3.8 M T. Some will try and tout harvest delays but other than a selected few processors I see no one aggressively bidding for corn.

As I mentioned other than some selected processors I see no one bidding aggressively for corn. The aggressive processor bidding goes along with the minor rebound in ethanol prices which had achieved a modest degree of oversold after Friday’s trade. The Gulf market for corn appears to be steady to a shade higher as it holds on to last week’s minor advances. Corn spreads inched in from its recent contract lows. I believe this is in part to today’s speculative short covering.

Flat price corn registers a smart looking upside reversal involving an outside day with a close above the previous day’s high. The recent idea that the corn market is no better/no worse than a trading range affair was stretched but it did not break. This is not the first time we have seen a reversal of this type as it should try and lend some further stability to the market. With that said – The trading range affair lives on!!!

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/24

Dec Corn: $3.47 – $3.54

March Corn: $3.61 – $3.68

 

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