Soybean Commentary
Nov Soybeans close 2 cents higher ($9.80 ¾), March 1 ¾ cents higher ($10.01) and July 2 cents higher ($10.18 ¾)
Dec Soybean Meal closes $1.2 lower ($315.9), March $1.2 lower ($321.1) and July $1.1 lower ($326.3)
Dec Soybean Oil closes 47 pts higher ($34.63), March 44 pts higher ($34.97) and July 42 pts higher ($35.34)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 2.562 M T. vs. 1.300-1.900 M T. expected
Weekly Soybean Progress – 97% dropping leaves vs. 97% 5-year average – 70% harvested vs. 64% expected vs. 73% 5-year average
Larger than expected weekly export inspections did very little for the soybean market other than to keep it stable on Monday. As of this writing soybean inspections are only lagging last year’s pace by just 500 K T. Bean oil continues to garner new buying as a result of last week’s decision by the EPA to keep bio-diesel mandates and the Commerce Dept.’s decision on Argentine bio-diesel tariffs in place. The meal market continues to languish as offers to sell cash meal remain depressed. US soybean meal origin continues to run second fiddle to SA origin, particularly Argentine origin. Also working to keep the soybean and soybean meal markets under wraps is the idea of improving weather for SA planting. For what it is worth – Nov bean option expiration is Friday – I’m told the big strikes are $10.00 and $9.60.
Not much happens with the interior cash soybean market. There is some flip-flopping within the Illinois River locations. It looks like one locations needs soybeans while the other does not. The Gulf market remains depressed at its lowest season to date. Soybean spreads were steady to fractionally better within the crop year. Old crop continues to lose to new crop. Offers to sell cash meal remain in the dumper. Meal spreads responded accordingly – steady to weaker. Bean oil spreads continue to ratchet higher along with the rally in the flat price.
Despite what appears to be a non-committal price performance in the soybean and soybean meal markets on Monday it needs to be noted that top side of suspected support levels ($9.75 Nov beans & Dec Meal $315.0) were tested and so far are holding. Dec bean oil should start experiencing some resistance as it approaches the $35.00 – $35.25 level.
Daily Support & Resistance for 10/24
Nov Beans: $9.75 ($9.70) – $9.92
Dec Meal; $314.0 ($312.0) – $322.0
Dec Bn Oil: $34.05 – $35.05
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