Corn Commentary
March Corn closes 1 cent higher ($3.66 ¾), July ¾ cent higher ($3.82 ½) and Dec ¾ cent higher ($3.97 ¼)
March Chgo Ethanol 0.010 cent a gallon higher ($1.487), April 0.010 cent higher ($1.499)
USDA announces 130.0 K T. of old crop corn sold to unknown
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.068 million bpd vs. 1.016 last week – Stocks – 22.8 million bbls vs. 22.9 last week
USDA Annual Ag Outlook Conference – 90.0 million acres planted to corn vs. 90.2 in 2017 vs. 91.0 recent baseline projections vs. 89.9 traders’ survey
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 1.000-1.500 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected
Last night the Rosario Grain Exchange suggested the Argentine corn crop is 35.0 M T. Midday today the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange suggested the Argentine corn crop is 37.0 M T. Earlier this month the USDA suggested their corn crop is 39.0 M T.
So here we sit!! We’ve heard from the USDA as to their updated acreage ideas. We’ve heard from Argentine sources as to their current corn crop size projections. So here we sit not far from recent highs. The muted reactions to all of this data would suggest no surprise. Flat price corn could not even give us a 3 cent daily range. Weather forecasts for areas of concern in Argentina still suggest a warm and dry bias. Tomorrow I believe the USDA will give us their ideas on Supply-Demand for the new crop using today’s acreage numbers while applying yield (probably trendline) and demand projections. Weekly export sales are expected to be no less than solid.
Most interior cash corn basis quotes are running unchanged. Changes that are seen are river locations that are involved for export; they are firm. Despite reports of flooding along the river ways I guess it has not yet impeded barge traffic. The Gulf is posting some of the highest levels I have seen in quite some time. May forward corn spreads ran unchanged while March gained a ¼ cent. For the time being demand from both the domestic sector and the export sector should remain strong.
It appears the market is biding its time waiting for news to take us in one direction or another. The technical downside reversal we saw on Tuesday has yet to be negated. It still suggests the potential for March corn to trade down to the mid-low $3.60’s. Personally I have been waiting for $3.63 as that level would fill a Friday close to a Monday higher opening (Friday the 12th to Monday the 15th).
Daily Support & Resistance for 02/23
March Corn: $3.63 – $3.69
July Corn: $3.77 – $3.85
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