Soybean Commentary
March Soybeans close 2 ¼ cents lower ($10.32), July 2 ½ cents lower ($10.52 ½) and Nov ¼ cent lower ($10.27 ¾)
March Soybean Meal closes $1.1 lower ($376.9), July $0.7 lower ($379.1) and Dec $0.1 lower ($362.7)
March Soybean Oil closes 3 pts lower ($32.04), July 4 pts lower ($32.41) and Dec 6 pts lower ($32.87)
USDA announces 55.0 K T. old crop soybeans sold to Unknown and 55.0 K T. new crop soybeans sold to Unknown
USDA Annual Ag Outlook Conference – 90.0 million acres planted to soybeans vs. 90.1 in 2017 vs. 91.0 recent baseline projections vs. 90.6 traders’ survey
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 600-900 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-200 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-450 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 10-35 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Last night the Rosario Grain Exchange suggested the Argentine soybean crop is 46.5 M T. Midday today the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange suggested the Argentine soybean crop is 47.0 M T. Earlier this month the USDA suggested their soybean crop is 54.0 M T.
The news we saw from the USDA as to acreage for the coming season and Argentine updates as to crop size appeared to surprise no one. I have to admit that the Argentine crop size projections have already been talked about; no surprise at this point in time. The lack of any new bullish input prompted some minor profit taking. I say minor as daily ranges were relatively tight vs. what we have seen in recent days and prices finished mostly mid-range of the day’s high and low. I can’t imagine anything too bullish coming out of the USDA tomorrow morning as their annual AG Outlook Conference concludes. Expectations for weekly export sales suggest not too many beans but meal sales could surprise.
Most interior soybean basis locations are showing steady if not easier bids. I do show one Illinois River location improving its bid. The Gulf has reversed the weakness we saw earlier in the week. Bean spreads ran mostly unchanged within the current crop year while old crop shows only minor losses to the new crop. It looks like Midwest rail meal is easier citing ample supply while the export market stands in. Meal spreads ran slightly easier within the crop year while old crop sees minor losses vs. the new crop.
Is the soybean and soybean meal markets topping out or are we just looking at the pause that refreshes? A tight daily range near the top end with declining volume would suggest a top. Can a weather market change all this? Technical considerations just know price action and nothing else.
Daily Support & Resistance for 02/23
March Beans: $10.20 – $10.40 (?)
March Meal; $367.5 – $386.0 (?)
March Bn Oil: $31.75 – $32.50
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