Corn Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Corn

Corn Commentary

July Corn closed 6 cents lower ($4.00), Sept 6 cents lower ($4.09) & Dec 6 cents lower ($4.19)

June Chgo Ethanol closed 0.012 cents a gallon higher ($1.504), July 0.011 cents higher ($1.526)

USDA announces 28.0 K T. old crop corn sold to Unknown – 203.2 K T. new crop corn sold to unknown

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.705 M T. vs. 1.400-1.700 M T. expected

Weekly Corn Progress & Ratings – 92% planted vs. 93% expected vs. 90% 5-year average – Emerged – 72% vs. 69% 5-year average – Ratings – 79% GE vs. 72% expected vs. 65% Year ago

The Monday night trade for flat price corn was modestly strong as traders cited the extreme temps over the weekend in a good portion of the Corn Belt. As we approached the day session prices started softened as short term beneficial forecasts (the next couple of days) were eyed as well as the idea the first crop ratings of the season are to be pretty decent. The break accelerated mid-morning as updated forecasts for the near term were consistent with earlier ideas. As we move through the week the trade will assess how those forecasts develop into reality. It should be noted that after this coming weekend much of the Corn Belt is forecasted to move into a warmer and drier phase.

Interior cash corn markets don’t do much. Prices for export show a firming bias. Weekly export inspections continue to be stout. Corn spreads involving July ‘18 and Sept ‘18 vs. forward contracts stay wide despite what I think is an excellent export program.

Flat price corn registers a nasty looking interim reversal after challenging last week’s highs for the rally that started in January. Today’s close is noticeably below last week’s trading range. Since it is almost a given that this year’s corn crop has been planted in a timely manner future price direction will take its cue from growing conditions. With that said I have to think this week’s forecasted rain events, whether they come to fruition or not, will be key to future direction. As I mentioned earlier; after this weekend we’ll move into mid-June with a warm and dry bias (according to the latest forecasts).

Daily Support & Resistance for 05/30

July Corn: $3.95 ($3.92) – $4.04

Dec Corn: $4.14 ($4.12) – $4.24

 

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