Soybean Commentary
July Soybeans closed 11 cents lower ($10.30 ½), August 11 cents lower ($10.35) & Nov 11 cents lower ($10.42 ½)
July Soybean Meal closed $0.1 lower ($380.2), August $0.2 lower ($380.6) & Dec $0.7 lower ($377.9)
July Soybean Oil closed 13 pts lower ($31.21), August 12 pts lower ($31.33) & Dec 12 pts lower ($32.01)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 576.4 K T. vs. 500-800 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Progress – 77% planted vs. 73% expected vs. 62% 5-year average – Emerged – 47% vs. 32% 5-year average
The soy complex trades all over the map on Monday night, Tuesday. The Monday night session brought us slightly firmer prices. As the day session approached prices began to weaken. Early into the day session soybean meal caught a bid as it rallied $9 to $10 off of its lows which in turn brought soybeans back to marginally higher on the day. As the day session progressed meal prices failed to hold its rally prompting soybeans to make new lows on the day. So what’s behind the erratic price action? Strength came from the labor problems in Brazil as processors are threatening to declare “Force Majeure”. The weakness came from the ongoing trade rift between China and the US. Over the weekend the WH indicated it would go through with its previously announced tariffs come June 15th. This occurs despite the supposed ongoing efforts to resolve their disputes. China announced its disappointment with the WH statements.
No change is being noted with the interior cash soybean bids vs. late last week. Gulf prices appear mostly steady. Soybean spreads within the crop year ran steady while old crop to new crop loses fractionally. Overall soybeans spreads remain at recent wide levels. Offers to sell cash soybean meal continue to suggest they are having a hard time finding domestic buyers. Export offers of cash meal aren’t much better. Despite this old crop spreads improve fractionally with slightly better advances vs. the new crop.
Flat price soybeans register an interim reversal for the rally that started last week. The crop appears to be off to a good start and short term weather forecasts appear to be beneficial (if they come to fruition). Soybean meal continues to spin its wheels as moves in either direction fail to sustain themselves. Soybean oil appears to be in a well-defined up channel with short term ideas suggesting a test of support down another 30 pts or so.
Daily Support & Resistance for 05/30
July Soybeans: $10.20 – $10.40
July Soybean Meal; $374.0 (?) – $385.0
July Soybean Oil: $30.80 – $31.55
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