Corn Commentary
July Corn closed 1 ½ cents lower ($3.76), Sept 1 ¼ cents lower ($3.85 ½) & Dec 1¼ cents lower ($3.97)
July Chgo Ethanol closed 0.007 cents a gallon lower ($1.437), August 0.003 cents lower ($1.457)
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.053 Million bpd vs. 1.041 week ago – Stocks – 22.2 million bbls vs. 21.9 week ago
Informa suggests corn planted acres at 88.7 million vs. the USDA at 88.0
Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 600-900 K T. expected – new crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected
On Wednesday flat price corn backs and fills part of Tuesday’s rally. Pressure points were good near term weather and sharply lower wheat and soy prices. Support comes from Tuesday’s USDA reports citing lower than anticipated carryout projections. That data suggested that a weather premium needs to be back in the price structure. I have to think that if wheat and soy weren’t sharply lower corn would have had a good chance to finish higher. On the weather front – it’s going to get hot and steamy this weekend but then cool down with moisture next week. Longer term ideas are trying to suggest a “hot & dry” scenario developing late this month. Given the planting rates we saw this spring there is going to be a massive amount of corn pollinating at the same time in early to mid-July. We’ll see if the longer term weather ideas pan out.
The interior cash corn market is reading mixed. Elevators are fully steady not showing a bias one way of the other. Most river locations are showing a slightly higher bias (not all but most). Processors still show the best bids out there. The Gulf is mostly steady. Nearby spreads ran steady for the most part; fractionally weaker involving the July contract. We have just one more day of the “big boy” index fund roll. Yesterday I couldn’t help but notice 2018/19 corn prices gaining on the 2019/20 prices. Those spreads lost some of what they gained yesterday.
Without bullish weather considerations flat price corn will move into a sideways trading affair until more is known as to crop size. If we do move into a trading affair expect Dec corn to find support in the mid-$3.80’s and resistance in the mid-low $4.10’s. If weather does indeed develop new highs are a distinct possibility
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/14
July Corn: $3.70 – $3.83
Dec Corn: $3.92 – $4.04
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