Soybean Commentary
July Soybeans closed 18 cents lower ($9.36), August 17 ¾ cents lower ($9.41 ¾) & Nov 15 ¾ cents lower ($9.58 ¾)
July Soybean Meal closed $5.8 lower ($347.7), August $5.7 lower ($349.5) & Dec $5.7 lower ($352.1)
July Soybean Oil closed 3 pts higher ($30.08), August 2 pts higher ($30.21) & Dec 2 pts higher ($30.87)
USDA announces 177.0 K T. sold to unknown – 5.0 K T. old crop, 172.0 K T. new crop
Informa suggests soybean planted acres at 89.9 million vs. the USDA at 89.0
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal export Sales – old crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-150 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-20 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-6 K T. expected
The tariff deadline between China and the US is June 15th. Will it happen? Longs in the soy complex are trading as if it will happen and they are going to make sure they’re not long. If it doesn’t happen you can be sure prices will boomerang back higher. At this point in time I’m not sure anything further needs to be said.
The interior cash soybean market reads mixed. River locations are seen to be steady to better. Elevators are quiet as they stay steady. Processors continue to show the best bids out there but they are not setting the world on fire. The Gulf appears to have softened from recent attempts to strengthen. Soybean spreads continue to widen out from a lack of market making business. Interior offers to sell cash meal continue to look for buyers. The export market is now easing as well. Meal spreads ran steady to fractionally softer out to December. July through Dec ran stronger vs. the Jan forward.
The 14-day RSI for July soybeans is 23.32, for November 25.36. The same RSI for July meal is 25.40, for December 29.14. Daily momentum indicators show an even greater degree of oversold. We have taken a year old rally in old crop soybeans and have completely erased it. Thank you very much to politics in the marketplace. From a time frame I would like to think there is not a lot left on the downside. Price wise – who knows. Unfortunately I learned a long time ago markets will go higher vs. what we think reasonable just like markets will go lower vs. what we think reasonable (is this one of those times?)
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/14
July Soybeans: ??? – $9.48 ($9.55)
Nov Soybeans: $9.50 (?) – $9.77
July Soybean Meal; ??? – $357.0
July Soybean Oil: ??? – $30.55
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