Corn Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Corn

Corn Commentary
May Corn closes 1 ¼ cents higher ($3.63 ½), July 1 ¼ cents higher ($3.71) and Dec ¾ cent higher ($3.85)
April Chgo Ethanol closes 1.7 cents a gallon higher ($1.536), May 1.7 cents higher ($1.552)
Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.045 Million bpd vs. 1.022 last week – Stocks – 22.8 million bbls vs. 22.9 last week
Weekly corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 700 K – 1.000 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-200 K T. expected
It was a quiet day for corn trading; just a 2 ¾ – 3 cent range. Although the trade was quiet – it was quietly higher. We have yet to hear of any confirm from the USDA on Tuesday’s rumored Chinese purchases. If we are going to see any confirm I would think we would see it before week’s end. The weekly ethanol grind rebounded this past week yet stocks declined. Ethanol prices firmed on this news but any impact on the corn market was barely seen. Stronger wheat along with a weakening US dollar kept the flat price relatively firm going into the close.
Elevator and processor basis ran unchanged on the day while selected river locations saw higher basis quotes. The stronger river basis appeared to be taking its cue from a firmer Gulf basis. Corn spreads ran fractionally firmer on the day.
I’m hesitant to say the tide has turned in the corn market meaning it is ready to retrace its recent sell-off. The last two days of price action just suggest some stabilization. This stabilization goes far in alleviating the recent short term oversold. Daily momentum indicators are flattening out near the low end. This does not mean the corn market cannot go lower. Bottom pickers can try it – you’re risking new low closes for the move.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/16
July Corn: $3.68 – $3.75
Dec Corn: $3.82 – $3.89

 

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