Soybeans Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Soybeans

Soybean Commentary
May Soybeans close 1 ¼ cents lower ($9.98), July 1 cent lower ($10.08) and Nov 1 ½ cents lower ($9.93)
May Meal closes $0.4 higher ($327.6), July $0.3 higher ($330.9) and Dec $0.1 lower ($326.0)
May Bean Oil closes 8 pts lower ($32.22), July 8 pts lower ($32.50) and Dec 6 pts lower ($32.94)
NOPA February Crush – 142.8 million bu. vs. 146.1 million expected – Soybean Oil Stocks – 1.770 billion lbs. vs. 1.750 billion expected
Weekly Export Sales – Soybeans – old crop vs. 400-600 K T. expected; new crop vs. 0-200 K T. expected – Soybean Meal – old crop vs. 150-350 K T. expected; new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected – Soybean Oil – old crop vs. 5-20 K T. expected; new crop vs. 0-20 K T. expected
Soybean prices trade inside of Tuesday’s range as do meal prices. Bean oil continued Tuesday’s attempt at rebounding but failed to follow through as the day went on. Initially the complex tried to trade with the strength in feed grains but eventually gains were trimmed as the complex continues to feel the weight of lofty supply. NOPA crush was disappointing to the soybean market, lent minor support to the meal market and weighed on bean oil prices. Overall the complex is still trying to deal with last week’s US carryout increase as well as the monster crop coming out of SA. Don’t forget about the idea of big planted soybean acre for the upcoming season. Any delays to corn planting and/or spring wheat planting will get us additional soybean acres over and above the idea of 88.0 million acres.
Elevator and processor basis for soybeans continue to be quiet. River basis, however, is in the midst of a very slight firming action. Like corn the soybean river basis is taking its cue from a firming Gulf. Soybean spreads ran mostly unchanged on the day. Offers to sell cash meal, truck, rail and for export continue to show a depressed look. Meal spreads, however, ran slightly better on the day – I think this was in response to the lower than expected NOPA crush number.
I’m calling the bean and meal price action consolidation. Bean oil saw a spike low on Tuesday, saw a rebound later that day and into last night but failed to follow through. The overall price action in bean oil is still trying to suggest it has gone low enough for now. That remains to be seen for the bean and meal markets. The attempt at consolidation can be viewed as positive if we can sustain closes above Tuesday’s highs – failure to do so will suggest additional downside action for the near term.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/16
July Beans: $9.95 – $10.20
July Meal; $326.0 – $335.0
July Bn Oil: $32.00 – $33.00

 

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