Corn Commentary

storck

Just My Opinion – Corn

Corn Commentary
May Corn closes ½ cent lower ($3.55 ¾), July¼ cent lower ($3.63 ½) and Dec ½ cent higher ($3.80)
April Chgo Ethanol closes 1.7 cents a gallon lower ($1.540), May 1.2 cents lower ($1.564)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.556 M T. vs. 1.200-1.500 M T. expected
I wish I could say we had something new in the corn market on Monday but I can’t. The bias for the majority of the day was were we left off last week; grinding lower. Yes, we did see some minor short covering late in the day that gave us a mixed close – fractionally lower in the old crop, fractionally higher in the new crop. Weekly corn export inspections were considered stout but barely given a look when announced. Trade guesstimates for the Quarterly Stocks report and the Prospective plantings report have hit the street. The trade is looking for a relatively big number for the Stocks report and as expected lower planted acres vs. last year. I’ve attached a table with all of the average estimates and range of estimates for your perusal.
Interior cash corn markets (basis) are showing a steady to higher bias as fresh producer sales appear to be non-existent. If the producer has sold by now he is willing to wait to see what the Friday’s reports show if not waiting to see what kind of weather related rally we may see later on in the growing season. Despite the steady to higher bias with the interior corn basis and what appeared to be very healthy looking weekly export inspections the Gulf basis continues to grind lower. The gulf basis has been grinding lower since mid-month. Corn spreads ran steady to easier within the current crop year while old crop continues to lose to the new crop.
Was Monday’s late in the day short covering a hint to the idea we may have gone low enough ahead of Friday’s USDA numbers? I would like to say yes as many technical indicators (inter-day and daily) are suggesting hints of oversold. Given the selling the market has seen dating back to last Monday I can’t imagine any spec longs left here. Friday’s COT report (as of last Tuesday) coupled with the recent price action suggests the spec has gotten rather bearish – almost to the point he has put the cart ahead of the horse. My bias for the next few days will be consolidation with some minor short covering.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/28
July Corn: $3.60 – $3.68
Dec Corn: $3.77 – $3.85

 

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