Soybean Commentary
May Soybeans close 4 ¼ cents lower ($9.71 ½), July 4½ cents lower ($9.81 ¾) and Nov 6 cents lower ($9.71)
May Meal closes $2.9 lower ($315.3), July $2.8 lower ($318.6) and Dec $3.4 lower ($318.0)
May Bean Oil closes 6 pts higher ($33.29), July 6 pts higher ($32.55) and Dec 7 pts higher ($32.91)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 555.0 K T. vs. 500-700 K T. expected
The soybean market continues to move lower from spec long liquidation. Old crop soybean prices are now at levels not seen since last mid-October and new crop is not far behind. The meal market continues to be the downside leader as it has now completely retraced the rally that started in mid-January. Old crop bean oil took out the interim lows we saw March 14th but managed a short covering bounce to finish slightly higher on the day. For what it is worth bean oil is now advertising an interim double bottom against the $32.00 level (July). Weekly soybean export inspections were deemed no big deal. Trade estimates for Friday’s USDA reports are looking for big numbers for both Stocks and Prospective Plantings.
The interior soybean basis is running unchanged to a shade better. Like the cash corn market cash soybean movement is almost non-existent. Spreads within the current crop year, as well as the old crop/new crop spreads, may be trying to show signs of stabilization but today is the first day. Offers to sell cash soybean meal remain in the dumper. Meal spread within the current crop year continue to look soft while old crop did manage to gain some on the new crop. I think it is going to come down to which is the most bearish – old crop or new crop?
The flat price action in both beans and meal is not giving me anything that I can hang my hat on as to whether or not we have gone low enough for the near term. Yes, I can tout minor degrees of oversold for both inter-day and daily technical indicators. As I mentioned earlier bean oil is trying to advertise an interim double bottom. The only item that I can tout as having any bit of positive perspective to it is that the old crop/new crop spreads have stopped going lower. Then again that just may come down to which is more bearish; old crop or new crop?
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/28
July Beans: $9.76 – $9.91
July Meal; $316.0 – $323.0
July Bn Oil: $32.15 – $33.10
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