Corn Commentary
May Corn closes 2 ¼ cents higher ($3.59 ¼), July 1¾ cents higher ($3.65 ½) and Dec 1 ½ cents higher ($3.83)
May Chgo Ethanol closes 0.5 cents a gallon lower ($1.619), June 0.2 cents higher ($1.605)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.453 M T. vs. 1.000-1.300 M T. expected
Corn Planting Progress – 17% vs. 15% expected vs. 6% last week vs. 28% last year vs. 18% 5-year average
Corn Crop Emergence – 4% vs. 4% last year vs. 4% 5-year average
Flat price corn consolidates just above last week’s interim lows with some minor short covering. The bearish issues are existing old crop stocks (more than ample) and ideas that planting rates (so far) will approach the 5-year norms. The bullish issues are this year’s reduced acres, the noticeably lower US dollar, heavy spec short positions and the continuing call for above normal moisture that could impede timely planting. To date the recent forecasts for above normal moisture throughout the Corn Belt have fell short. Since the beginning of April inter-market spreaders have been long oilseeds and short feed grains. This has to be “demand focused” as corn acres are down noticeably this year vs. soybean acres being up noticeably.
Interior cash corn markets have a firm tone as new producer sales are pretty much non-existent given the recent sell-off in the flat price. Spreads continue to show a steady to firm bias within the old crop while old crop/new crop spreads hover just above last fall’s contract lows. I have to think old crop cash movement will not increase without a significant rally in the flat price and/or the producer getting his crop planted in a timely manner.
I’ve been saying this for a while now and to date it has not changed – the long term look at the corn market is a trading range affair. Last week’s lows tested some interim support within the long term trading range and so far these support levels are holding. As of this writing my thought is that these levels will hold until we see more of the crop planted. Remember it is still only April. Talk to me in mid-late May and if we are then noticeably behind in planting then we’ll have something to talk about.
Daily Support & Resistance for 04/25
July Corn: $3.61 – $3.69
Dec Corn: $3.79 – $3.87
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