Soybean Commentary
May Soybeans close 10 ¼ cents higher ($9.61 ¼), July 11 cents higher ($9.71 ¾) and Nov 8 cents higher ($9.67 ½)
May Meal closes $6.8 higher ($316.4), July $7.0 higher ($320.6) and Dec $5.2 higher ($321.0)
May Bean Oil closes 21 pts lower ($31.69), July 23 pts lower ($31.93) and Dec 23 pts lower ($32.31)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 634.8 K T. vs. 400-600 K T. expected
Soybean Planting Progress – 6% vs. 2% expected vs. 3% last year vs. 3% 5-Year average
Soybeans and soybean meal continue to stand in and actually rally as they cite a lower US dollar prompting the potential for better demand, seasonal processor downtime and a continued strong Board crush margin. SA producers continue to be tight holders of their new crop. The latest COT report suggested the spec in soybeans was a minor short while the spec in soybean meal remains a minor long. Some of the chatter talks about if corn planting is done in a timely manner it may take away from soybean acres. That remains to be seen. As I mentioned in the corn comment – the inter-market spreader continues to focus on being long oilseeds vs. short feed grains.
If changes are being seen in the interior soybean basis it stems from the lack of fresh producer selling. Board crush margins remain
strong. This in turn allows the processor to bid up for beans. If we can get a better rally in the flat price and the basis continues to hold strong producers may resume selling some cash soybeans. Soybean spreads, both old/old and old/new, have firmed ever so slightly in the past week or so. Despite the firming action in both the basis and spreads none of this has yet to attract any excitement; just an upwards drift following the Feb/March collapse.
The near term bias for bean and meal is sideways to higher while the longer term trend still reads lower. Bean oil may be in the process of carving out a bottom but nothing has been confirmed. Monday’s highs in beans and meal and represent first level of minor resistance. Better resistance for beans is another 10 cents higher if not 30 cents higher. I find in interesting that beans and meal are trying to rally while they have the lowest volatility within the grain complex. Low volatility usually deals with the lack of uncertainty. I’m not sure where the uncertainty is within the soybean complex at this time.
Daily Support & Resistance for 04/25
July Beans: $9.60 – $9.78
July Meal; $316.5 – $323.5
July Bn Oil: $31.40 – $32.40
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