Corn Commentary
July Corn closes 2 ½ cents higher ($3.79 ½), Sept 2 ½ cents higher ($3.87 ½) and Dec 2 ¼ cents higher ($3.97 ¾)
July Chgo Ethanol closes 0.024 cents a gallon lower ($1.573), August 0.024 cents a gallon lower ($1.574)
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 600.7 K T. old crop vs. 500-700 K T. expected – 13.5 K T. new crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected
Flat price corn gets beat up early but manages to come bouncing back as the day progressed on Thursday. Recent rainfall through the Midwest was the catalyst for the early sharp break but after further assessments it was realized that coverage was not as great as originally thought. Rebounding wheat prices (that had fallen in sympathy) helped aid in the corn market’s flat price recovery. Adding to the rebound were midday maps showing a drier bias in the short term as well as longer term. Some forecasters are suggesting that by month end, early July, we could be dealing with another hot and dry scenario. My bottom line to all of this – the corn market is not going to suffer/sustain any serious breakdown until we know far more about the condition of the crop as to its yield potential.
Few changes are being noted in the interior corn basis – the Ohio River shows some slight improvement from the lows it saw last week. Davenport, IA eases a touch but still firm from last week’s lows. The Gulf continues to creep back higher from the lows it saw last week. Corn spreads were flat within the old crop while old crop gains on the new crop. Overall corn spreads stay relatively wide.
In the early going on Thursday the flat price, both old crop and new crop gave us a severe challenge of suspected support levels and held in like a champ. Thursday’s performance suggests the risk in this market is to the upside, not the downside at least for the near term. Friday may bring us an inside day as it respects the weekend forecasts calling for additional moisture.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/16
July Corn: $3.74 – $3.85
Dec Corn: $3.92 – $4.03
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