Soybean Commentary
July Soybeans 3 cents higher ($9.34 ¾), Aug 3 ½ cents higher ($9.38 ¾) and Nov 5 cents higher ($9.44)
July Meal closes $1.2 lower ($30, Aug $1.2 lower ($302.4) and Dec $1.2 lower ($306.5)
July Bean Oil closes 65 pts higher ($32.74), Aug 66 pts higher ($32.87) and Dec 68 pts higher ($33.24)
Weekly Export Sales – Soybeans – 340.2 K T. old crop vs. 250-450 K T. expected; 314.0 K T. new crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – Soybean Meal – 166.8 K T. old crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected; 110.4 K T. new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected – Soybean Oil – 30.3 K T. old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected; no new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
NOPA Crush – 149.246 million bu. vs. 143.192 expected
In the early going on Thursday the entire soy complex was trading lower. Recent weather in the Midwest was the primary influence. Bean oil led the comeback as the rumor mill talks about the EPA coming out sooner vs. later in regards to renewable fuel use requirements for 2018. It is expected few if any changes to conventional targets and modest increases to bio-fuel use. Soybean meal struggled at unchanged levels as it too tried to rally but unable to get anything going. The lagging meal market kept soybean advances in check. The midday release of the May NOPA crush data added some additional support for the soybean market.
Processors continue to show the best basis for the interior soybean market. Selected river bids tried to poke their noses up as they come off of recent lows. The Gulf basis stays slack looking. Overall soybean spreads stay soft looking – the July/Nov spread registered new lows for the season. Not much is happening with cash offers to sell soybean meal as they stay fairly soft looking. Meal spreads saw little change on the day as they too stay soft looking.
Beans and meal tried to break down on Thursday but the bias continues for consolidation. Granted bean oil was some of the primary support for soybeans and I’m not wild about bean oil being an upside leader. If one looks at the price action of soybeans all by itself it suggests the soybean market is not ready to break down. If I didn’t know better new crop beans are trying to establish a bit of weather premium within its price structure. I will reiterate that if the meal market stays depressed it will be tough for soybeans to sustain much of a rally beyond recent interim highs.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/16
July Beans: $9.27 – $9.45
Nov Beans: $9.36 – $9.54
July Meal; $298.0 – $306.0
July Bn Oil: $32.25 – $33.10
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