Corn Commentary
July Corn closes 6 cents lower ($3.62 ¾), Sept 6 cents lower ($3.70 ¾) and Dec 6 cents lower ($3.80 ¾)
July Chgo Ethanol closes 0.017 cents a gallon lower ($1.), August cents 0.023 cents lower ($1.497)
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 528.8 K T. old crop vs. 550-750 K T. expected – 124.0 K T. new crop vs. 100-300 K T.
The lack of threatening weather to the developing corn crop has prices continuing to move lower. Forecasts don’t show much of threat either. Dec corn prices are now down 20 + cents from last Friday’s close. If you recall last week many were trying to tout a “hot & dry” would develop by month’s end and into July. So far that has yet to materialize in many forecasts. I get many calls asking “what if” the big heat currently in the southwest starts shifting east. My answer is we can’t play the “what if” game as all that leads to is frustration. If that hot dome does indeed start to shift I’m sure we’ll some decent advance notice. I am thinking the flat price will probably begin to realize some support ahead of next Friday’s Stocks and Acreage report but that probably won’t come until mid-next week.
Interior cash corn markets offer no help to the declining flat price. Granted movement is minimal but no one (end-users of any kind) appears anxious for origination. The Gulf stays depressed looking as weather down there has slowed loadings. Spreads stay wide further suggesting a lack of interest.
Most trend lines and moving averages that had offered previous support have now fallen by the wayside. All we have left now are previous interim lows that have offered support to the spring market’s trading range affair. As of this writing Dec corn is now looking at $3.78 and $3.74. I would be surprised if we moved below $3.72 ahead of next Friday’s USDA data. Because this week’s drop has been relatively severe it would not surprise me to see some attempt at consolidation, modest short covering ahead of the weekend and that just because short term inter-day technical data reads quite oversold.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/23
July Corn: $3.60– $3.67
Dec Corn: $3.78 – $3.85
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