Soybean Commentary
July Soybeans 14 ¾ cents lower ($9.04), Aug 14 cents lower ($9.08 ½) and Nov 14 ½ cents lower ($9.13 ¼)
July Meal closes $4.1 lower ($293.8), Aug $4.3 lower ($295.4) and Dec $5.3 lower ($294.4)
July Bean Oil closes 30 pts lower ($31.55), Aug 30 pts lower ($31.66) and Dec 32 pts lower ($32.05)
Weekly Export Sales – Soybeans – 111.2 K T. vs. 200-400 K T. expected; 3.8 K T. new crop vs. 150-350 K T. expected – Soybean Meal – 86.6 K T. old crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected; 45.6 K T. new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected – Soybean Oil – 13.3 K T. old crop vs. 8-30 K T. expected; 4.1 K T. new crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected
How low can you go?? Soybeans and soybean meal make new lows for the major down trend that started last February. Soybean oil has now retraced 180-190 points from the highs it saw on Monday. The rationale for the break is non-threatening weather for the new crop (so far), an abundance of global stocks and the idea of a 6 million acre increase vs. last year. I’m not sure the USDA can give us numbers next Friday that are going to change the fundamental rationale. With that said any sustained rally potential has to come from weather and so far that has not happened.
Like corn the soybean cash markets don’t offer any help. A slowdown at the Gulf due to weather issues there has most river bids on the defensive. Soybean spreads remain relatively wide. The interior cash meal market remains a slug. Meal spreads are trying to show some support but I think that is because a lot of the recent spec selling is focusing on the new crop.
Daily technical data is nowhere near oversold. Shorter term inter-day technical data does read oversold. Getting the nearby soybeans to trade below $9.00 may bring about some short covering on Friday just because it’s the weekend. Other than the short term technical data reading oversold I don’t see anything in the price action that suggests support.
Daily Support & Resistance for 06/23
July Beans: $8.92 – $9.14
Nov Beans: $9.03 ½ – $9.22
July Meal; $290.0 – $299.0
July Bn Oil: $31.20 – $32.00
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