Corn Commentary
July Corn closes 9 ½ cents higher ($3.91 ¾), Sept 9 ½ cents higher ($4.02) and Dec 10 cents higher ($4.14 ¾)
August Chgo Ethanol closes 0.035 cents a gallon higher ($1.553), Sept 0.031 cents higher ($1.552)
Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 1.010 M T. vs. 800 K – 1.100 M T. expected
Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – 65% GE vs. 67% expected vs. 76% year ago – 19% silking vs. 27% 5-year average
It’s all about the forecasts going forward as most expect a “hot & dry” scenario to develop. The much talked about ridge out west is expected to slowly but surely move to the east later this week into the final two weeks of July. It was interesting to note that the rains that had developed overnight in east, southeast Iowa and the northern half of Illinois were pretty much dismissed by the trade during the day on Monday. Short term forecasts suggest we could see another rain event later this week but once again most are looking at forecasts for last half July and into early August. On Wednesday the USDA will update supply-demand; both old crop and new crop. If trade estimates (see attached) are anywhere near correct the USDA is going to give us higher numbers. With that said it is going to be up to weather/forecasts to offset. If you want to give any credibility to tonight’s forecasts from the NWS Wednesday’s corn numbers won’t mean a thing.
Most interior cash markets have a defensive look. Movement has increased on the rally and that has kept most cash locations on the defensive. The Gulf market remains nothing to look at. Corn spreads are all about the spec buying in the Dec and March contracts – old crop loses to these contracts and these contracts lead their deferred contracts.
Last week’s attempt at correcting measures to the $4.20 level (Dec). If we’re going to test the $4.20 level why not test the high from last June at $4.22 ¾. After that we look at the $4.35 level. New support is now the mid-low $4.00’s.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/11
Sept Corn: $3.91 – $4.12 ½
Dec Corn: $4.03 – $4.23 (?)
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.