Soybean Commentary
July Soybeans 24 ¼ cents higher ($10.20 ¼), Aug 23 ¾ cents higher ($10.24 ¾) and Nov 23 ¾ cents higher ($10.39 ¼)
July Meal closes $7.9 higher ($336.4), Aug $7.5 higher ($338.2) and Dec $7.6 higher ($345.6)
July Bean Oil closes 84 pts higher ($33.62), Aug 83 pts higher ($33.68) and Dec 85 pts higher ($34.17)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 475.1 K T. vs. 200-400 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Condition & Progress – 62% GE vs. 63% expected vs. 71% year ago – 34% blooming vs. 32% 5-year average – 7% setting pods vs. 5% 5-year average
There’s no mystery here – it’s all about forecasts featuring “hot & dry” in the west and suggesting it will slowly but surely move east. The spec trade continues to cover shorts; if not getting long. Today’s high in November beans eclipsed last November’s high by ¾’s of a cent but clearly registered the highest close to date. New crop soybean meal blew away its previous high and clearly closed in new high ground. Soybean oil finally got off of its can as it registered its best close dating back to mid late March. On Wednesday the USDA will update supply-demand for both old crop and new crop. Trade estimates suggest slightly lower carryouts vs. the June data but still with more than ample supply. I have to think that if the USDA comes in anywhere close to trade estimates we’ll trade them for about 2 minutes and then go back and look at forecasts.
The interior cash soybean markets, like corn, have a defensive look as cash soybeans have been moving on the rally. The Gulf too has a sloppy look. Soybean spreads ran mostly steady across the Board despite the soft looking cash markets. Cash soybean meal market remains soft looking. Meal spreads saw very little change on the day.
Short term weather will feature hot and dry out west while the central areas of the belt may see another rain event later this week similar to what we saw today. Forecasts beyond this week are calling for hot and dry through most areas. The trade has been moving from short to long. Now we need to give them room to get long. The higher we go the more volatile the price action will become on corrections. I have a feeling we are going to have to fasten our seatbelts for the coming days.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/11
Aug Beans: $10.10 – $10.50 (?)
Nov Beans: $10.25 – $10.65 (?)
Aug Meal; $332.0 – $350.0 (?)
Aug Bn Oil: $33.30 – $34.90
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.