Corn Commentary
Sept Corn closes 1 ½ cents higher ($3.74 ¼), Dec 1 ¾ cents higher ($3.87 ¾) and March 1 ½ cents higher ($3.99 ¼)
August Chgo Ethanol closes 0.010 cents a gallon higher ($1.530), Sept 0.014 cents higher ($1.547)
Weekly Corn Export Sales – 92.0 K T. old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – 486.6 K T. new crop vs. 200-400 K T. expected
Flat price corn finishes the day on Thursday with modest gains following Wednesday’s interim reversal to the upside. Weekly export sales saw old crop sales fall out of bed while new crop sales came in above expectations. For what it is worth new crop corn sales are lagging last year’s new crop sales pace by 3.1 M T. My opinion on the lagging sales pace is in part to large corn stocks in SA as well as the unknown around the US crop. As we move through the month of August the hemming and hawing around yield will get even more intense – we have the USDA with their first field survey of the season on August 10th and that will be followed by the Pro Farmer crop tour. With all of this said the months’ old trading affair will live on.
The interior cash corn market gives us a mixed look on Thursday as I see locations backing off on bids while other locations are holding steady. the overall tone of the interior corn basis still looks defensive. Export values continue to hover just above recent lows. Corn spreads ran fractionally mixed on the day all the while staying relatively wide.
Given the interim upside reversal we saw on Wednesday my bias has once again reverted back to a trading range affair with Wednesday’s lows being support. Interim resistance will be $3.95. as of this writing it is my thought that if we are to challenge the high side of the range (recent highs) we’ll need to see something inflammatory from the USDA or wide spread talk that yields are not as good as thought from areas that we currently think are good.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/28
Sept Corn: $3.69 – $3.80
Dec Corn: $3.82 – $3.94
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